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As we enter 2025, the US economic situation is showing signs of growing tension, with several dynamics converging to accentuate the fragility of the financial and consumer system. Numerous graphs reveal a fundamental shift in the interest rate environment, coupled with an alarming deterioration in household finances. The first important graph is that of the US 10-year yield: Since 2022, there has been a clear breakout of the historic downward trend in 10-year bond yields, marking a major turning point in financial market dynamics. Since the 1980s, this trend, illustrated by the line drawn on the chart, has symbolized a paradigm of continuous reduction in the cost of debt, characterizing an era of steadily declining interest rates. Today, the crossing of this threshold symbolizes a fundamental revaluation of the markets, driven by persistent inflationary expectations. Despite a slight correction, rates remain at high levels, squeezing both the real economy an...
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