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In my bulletin from January 19, 2024, titled “The Fed Has Not Won the War on Inflation”, I wrote: “The resurgence of inflation will certainly complicate the Fed's task when it comes to making the decision that markets have been anticipating for several weeks: stock market performance is explained exclusively by the Fed's promise of a rate cut.” I had also added: “Overall, the market does not seem to be taking on board the risk of supply disruptions in raw materials. Yet this risk is one of the key factors that could radically alter the inflation picture.” Twelve months on, the risk of disruption remains largely absent from valuations, and commodity prices, with a few exceptions, have remained surprisingly depreciated throughout 2024. Agricultural commodities such as coffee, orange juice, chocolate, and eggs have risen spectacularly in recent months, mainly due to factors specific to these markets, such as drought or avian flu. Metals, on the other hand, have...
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