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10x Research’s head crypto researcher isn’t ruling out Bitcoin repeating its 2024 price action, where it spent much of the year consolidating after hitting all-time highs early on.
“Very possible,” Markus Thielen told Cointelegraph when asked what the chances of Bitcoin (BTC) repeating a similar market movement to 2024, where it reached an all-time high of $73,679 in March before entering a consolidation phase, swinging within a range of around $20,000 up until Donald Trump was elected as US president in November.
Bitcoin’s current chart signals “market indecision”
Thielen said he had this thought even two months ago, around the time Bitcoin hit its current all-time high of $109,000 on the day of Trump’s inauguration.
He explained in his most recent market report on March 15 that Bitcoin’s current chart resembles a “High and Tight Flag,” which, despite typically being a bullish continuation pattern, shows signs of weakness.
“Two flags instead of a single, precise formation weakens this setup,” Thielen said.
“As a result, the pattern currently suggests market indecision rather than a straightforward bullish consolidation,” he added.
Meanwhile, he also pointed out that the spot Bitcoin exchange-traded fund (ETF) market shows no signs of a “buy-the-dip” mentality.
“Little incentive” to take advantage of Bitcoin’s recent price dip
“This aligns with our view that most ETF flows came from arbitrage-driven hedge funds. Given the persistently low funding rates, there’s little incentive or willingness to deploy additional capital despite the recent price correction,” Thielen said.
Since the beginning of March, when Bitcoin fell below $90,000, spot Bitcoin ETFs in the US have recorded total outflows of around $1.66 billion, according to Farside data.
Bitcoin is trading at $84,290 at the time of publication, according to CoinMarketCap. This represents a 23% decline from its $109,000 January all-time high.
Thielen is unsure if Bitcoin’s uptrend will resume in the short term. ”Therefore, it may be prudent to close short positions at this stage, although there remains little evidence to support a strong price recovery,” Thielen said.
Related: Bitcoin panic selling costs new investors $100M in 6 weeks — Research
Ever since Bitcoin fell below $80,000 on Feb. 28 — the first time since November — amid growing macroeconomic uncertainty over US President Donald Trump’s proposed tariffs, several crypto analysts have been predicting further downfall for the asset.
On March 10, BitMEX co-founder and Maelstrom chief investment officer Arthur Hayes said “it looks like Bitcoin will retest $78,000.” “If it fails, $75,000 is next in the crosshairs,” he added.
Meanwhile, Iliya Kalchev, dispatch analyst at digital asset investment platform Nexo, told Cointelegraph on March 11 that the low $70,000 range could “provide a foundation for a more sustainable recovery.”
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