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Between Oct. 25, 2024, and Jan. 16, 2025, XRP (XRP) had one of the best rallies of the current bull market, gaining 600% as investors piled in with the hope that a pro-crypto presidency would benefit Ripple and its cryptocurrency.
During this time, the quarterly average of daily active addresses jumped by 490% and XRP price hit a 7-year high.
XRP’s 1-day chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView
Fast forward to the present, and data shows that the speculative interest surrounding XRP is declining. Holders are increasingly facing losses rather than gains, which is dampening their risk appetite.
“Retail confidence in XRP may be slipping”
Since bottoming in 2022, Bitcoin (BTC) and XRP have gained 500% to 600%, but the bulk of XRP’s gains came from a parabolic price increase. Data from Glassnode shows that XRP daily active addresses jumped by 490%, whereas the same metric for Bitcoin increased by 10% over the past four months.
XRP's new investor realized the cap. Source: Glassnode
This retail-driven surge pushed XRP’s realized cap from $30.1 billion to $64.2 billion, with $30 billion of that inflow coming from investors in the last six months. The share of XRP’s realized cap held by new investors (less than six months) jumped from 23% to 62.8%, signaling a rapid wealth shift. However, since late February 2025, capital inflows have dipped significantly.
XRP realized profit/loss ratio. Source: Glassnode
The primary reason is that investors are currently locking in fewer profits and staring at higher losses. This can be identified by the realized loss/profit ratio, which has constantly declined since 2025. Glassnode analysts said,
Besides weakening confidence among newer investors, the distribution of XRP among whale addresses reflects a similar trend. Data shows a steady increase in whale outflows since the start of 2025, suggesting that large holders have been consistently trimming their positions. Over the past 14 days, over $1 billion in positions were offloaded at an average price of $2.10.
Whale flow 30-day moving average. Source: CryptoQuant
Related: How many US dollars does XRP transfer per day?
Can XRP hold the $2 support?
XRP has found support at $2 multiple times over the past few weeks, but the chance of the altcoin dropping below this level increases with each retest.
XRP 4-hour chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView
However, on the lower time frame (LTF) of the 1-hour and 4-hour charts, a bullish divergence can be observed for XRP. A bullish divergence occurs when the price forms a lower low and the relative strength index (RSI) forms a lower high.
With a fair value gap between $2.08 and $2.13, XRP might see a relief rally into this range, especially if the wider crypto market undergoes an oversold bounce. On the higher time frame chart, XRP appears bearish due to the formation of an inverse head-and-shoulders pattern, with a measured target near $1.07.
There is a chance that the altcoin finds support from the 200-day moving average (orange line) around the $1.70 to $1.80 mark, but XRP price has not tested this level since Nov. 5, 2024.
XRP 1-day chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView
Related: Bitcoin drops 8%, US markets shed $2T in value — Should traders expect an oversold bounce?
This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.
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